Subscription box business simulator
See what your subscription box would turn over, how many subscribers you'd win and who you'd lose them to — month by month for two years — before you spend real money.
A box a month, a churn rate that decides everything. This one opens as Monthly Unboxed: A monthly subscription box of curated products, delivered to the door. Rename it, reprice it, or describe your own subscription box and let Nova rewrite it to fit.
What a steady box ends up with
Played steadily for all two years — quality first, then growth, a fair share of the bank spent each year — a steady box here ends its last year on $211k of revenue and $9.9k of profit, with 1,030 subscribers and 3.9% of the market (#5 of 5).
It starts from nothing: $100k in the bank and you, 45 hours a week, with no subscribers yet.
People who play it well do better, and a bad plan runs out of money.
Revenue in the last year: $211k
Profit in the last year: $9.9k
Subscribers at the end: 1,030
Share of the market: From nothing to 3.9%
Where it finishes: #5 of 5
Years and decisions: 2 years, monthly
What you'll decide each month
Each month you set your prices, split the ad budget between subscribers you buy now and a brand people remember, decide how many boxs you can fulfil, and choose which markets to sell into.
Each decision shows on a forecast before you file it, and every period resolves against the rivals and the economy.
Who your subscribers are
Online, every subscriber is one tab away from a cheaper copy. What decides it is the margin left after the ads and the delivery, not the price on the page.
100,000 subscribers in all, across United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Canada and Australia.
Trial-and-cancel: They compare three tabs and buy the cheapest that arrives on time. About 45,000 of them, worth $168 a year each.
Long-term subscribers: They know the category and will pay for the right one. About 25,000 of them, worth $360 a year each.
Gift subscriptions: Buying for somebody else: presentation and delivery dates matter. About 20,000 of them, worth $264 a year each.
Office and team boxes: Wholesale orders from shops that want a margin and reliable stock. About 10,000 of them, worth $720 a year each.
Who you're up against
Three rivals are already in it, and they play to win: they cut prices, spend on marketing and answer what you do. Most of the market is theirs on day one.
The market-leading box: Wins on price and little else; its customers leave the moment somebody is better. Holds about 30% of the market.
The discount box: The biggest, and slow to change — it has stopped listening to its smaller customers. Holds about 20% of the market.
Buying it yourself: Hasn't changed in years and is living off the customers it already has. Holds about 12% of the market.
How it works
Free until you start: building and previewing cost nothing, and starting is $10, once.
Build it — free: Press build and you get your own copy of this market: four kinds of subscriber, three rivals and five markets.
Make it yours: Change any number, describe your subscription box in a sentence or two and let Nova fill it in, or upload a profit and loss or a month-by-month sales history to fit it to your real figures.
Preview — free: See what a steady box ends up with, and every warning worth reading, before you pay anything.
Start — $10: Pay once to start, your seat included. Then run it month by month for two years.
Also for
monthly box · recurring · meal kit · snack box
How much does the subscription box business simulator cost?
Building and previewing are free: make your own copy of this subscription box market, change anything in it and see what a steady box ends up with without paying. Starting the simulation is $10, once, and your own seat is included.
Can I make it match my own subscription box?
Yes. Every number can be changed — the subscribers and what they pay, the rivals, the markets, the costs and the starting cash. Or describe your subscription box in a sentence or two and Nova, SparkTower's AI, fills every section in for one Nova action. If you already trade, upload a profit and loss or a month-by-month sales history and the simulation is fitted to your real numbers, starting from where your business stands today.
Are the numbers realistic for a subscription box?
The template is checked against what real ones do: played steadily, a believable one finishes year two turning over between $60k and $600k, with between 200 and 2,500 subscribers. This one's preview comes to about $211k and 1,030. Your own prices, costs and figures change that, which is the point of trying it here first.
Can I use it to test a subscription box business plan?
That is what it is for. Put your plan's prices, costs and starting cash in, play it forward month by month, and see whether the money lasts, how many subscribers you would need and what a rival's price cut does to you — before you put real money in.
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