AI startup simulator
See what your AI startup would turn over, how many accounts you'd win and who you'd lose them to — quarter by quarter for four years — before you spend real money.
A model, a wrapper, and the race to be more than a feature. This one opens as Cortex Assist: An AI product that automates one job for businesses, sold by subscription with usage on top. Rename it, reprice it, or describe your own AI startup and let Nova rewrite it to fit.
What a steady startup ends up with
Played steadily for all four years — quality first, then growth, a fair share of the bank spent each year — a steady startup here ends its last year on $1.6m of revenue and $70k of profit, with 772 accounts and 11% of the market (#5 of 6).
It starts from nothing: $600k in the bank and you, 50 hours a week, with no accounts yet.
People who play it well do better, and a bad plan runs out of money.
Revenue in the last year: $1.6m
Profit in the last year: $70k
Accounts at the end: 772
Share of the market: From nothing to 11%
Where it finishes: #5 of 6
Years and decisions: 4 years, quarterly
What you'll decide each quarter
Each quarter you price the licence, choose between building features and making it reliable, hire the people who sell and support it, and decide whether to raise money or borrow it.
Each decision shows on a forecast before you file it, and every period resolves against the rivals and the economy.
Who your accounts are
Software is sold licence by licence and lost through churn: a cheap plan fills the top of the funnel, but the accounts that stay and grow are what pay for the company.
16,000 accounts in all, across United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Canada and Australia.
Small teams: A few people, a card on file, and no patience for a sales call. About 8,800 of them, worth $1.2k a year each.
Growing companies: They will pay for something that works and an answer when it does not. About 4,800 of them, worth $3.1k a year each.
Enterprises: Procurement, a security review and the deepest pockets in the market. About 1,120 of them, worth $14k a year each.
Odd ones out: People using spreadsheets or a tool built for something else, because nothing fits. About 1,280 of them, worth $1.9k a year each.
Who you're up against
Four rivals are already in it, and they play to win: they cut prices, spend on marketing and answer what you do. Most of the market is theirs on day one.
The big model company's own product: The biggest, and slow to change — it has stopped listening to its smaller customers. Holds about 32% of the market.
Fifty lookalike wrappers: Wins on price and little else; its customers leave the moment somebody is better. Holds about 18% of the market.
The incumbent adding AI: The biggest, and slow to change — it has stopped listening to its smaller customers. Holds about 10% of the market.
The open-source alternative: Clever and quick, but stretched thin and hard to get hold of. Holds about 10% of the market.
How it works
Free until you start: building and previewing cost nothing, and starting is $10, once.
Build it — free: Press build and you get your own copy of this market: four kinds of account, four rivals and five markets.
Make it yours: Change any number, describe your AI startup in a sentence or two and let Nova fill it in, or upload a profit and loss or a month-by-month sales history to fit it to your real figures.
Preview — free: See what a steady startup ends up with, and every warning worth reading, before you pay anything.
Start — $10: Pay once to start, your seat included. Then run it quarter by quarter for four years.
Also for
ai · artificial intelligence · llm · machine learning · gpt · chatbot · automation
How much does the AI startup simulator cost?
Building and previewing are free: make your own copy of this AI startup market, change anything in it and see what a steady startup ends up with without paying. Starting the simulation is $10, once, and your own seat is included.
Can I make it match my own AI startup?
Yes. Every number can be changed — the accounts and what they pay, the rivals, the markets, the costs and the starting cash. Or describe your AI startup in a sentence or two and Nova, SparkTower's AI, fills every section in for one Nova action. If you already trade, upload a profit and loss or a month-by-month sales history and the simulation is fitted to your real numbers, starting from where your business stands today.
Are the numbers realistic for an AI startup?
The template is checked against what real ones do: played steadily, a believable one finishes year four turning over between $250k and $3m, with between 60 and 1,500 accounts. This one's preview comes to about $1.6m and 772. Your own prices, costs and figures change that, which is the point of trying it here first.
Can I use it to test an AI startup business plan?
That is what it is for. Put your plan's prices, costs and starting cash in, play it forward quarter by quarter, and see whether the money lasts, how many accounts you would need and what a rival's price cut does to you — before you put real money in.
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